十送红军 黑鸭子演唱:急求一篇”in the year 2056”演讲稿急！！3分钟之内的，本科水平

Editor's Note: In celebration of AJM's 50th anniversary, we're not only reflecting on the past, but also looking ahead to the next 50 years of technology, tools, and innovations. Each issue in 2006 will feature predictions of how various aspects of jewelry manufacturing will change and develop in the next half-century.

Perspectives on Retail in 50 Years

BY GREG STOPKA
The two keys to the success of small, independent jewelers in the next 50 years are embracing technology and focusing on design. In the year 2056, retail stores and their inventory will shrink dramatically. Operating in a 300 to 500 square foot space, the retailer will no longer display actual product inventory in a showcase; they will offer virtual inventory in the form of lifelike renderings of jewelry on store walls, monitors, or plasma screens.

The most exciting part of this new sales environment will be the customer's ability to interact with these virtual jewelry pieces. By putting on a set of goggles and a glove, the customer will be able to try on rings in virtual reality, twirling her hand around to see how the piece will look on her finger.

Unique designs will be essential to draw the customers into the store. With the growth of the Internet, consumers will have their pick of millions of generic engagement rings online; the only way to get them into your store will be through customization and design. Despite the continued evolution of technology, there will always be a need for that personal connection and relationship. The one-on-one experience a customer gets when you design a ring just for her will still be paramount in 2056.

Perspectives on The Jeweler's Shop in 50 Years

BY MICHAEL DAVID STURLIN
I hold a firm expectation that much of our present (and ancient) technology will still be an integral part of the year 2056 jeweler’s studio. Our traditional steel tools will still be in use, and there will continue to be a need for hammers and punches, bezel and swage blocks, rolling mills, draw plates, files, gravers, chisels, and jewelers’ saws. Many of these accoutrements have been around for thousands of years, and I think another 50 won’t make them obsolete.

It will still be necessary to drill holes in metal and cut seats for stones with burs, so we’ll probably still be using the flex-shaft, albeit a more modern version with enhanced features; however, this tool will provide the same basic function that it does today.

Most important, the key to productivity in the year 2056 jeweler’s studio will still be the jeweler—the skilled artisan who works with tools in hand and does not surrender the entirety of the process to mechanization and computerization. A handmade item of jewelry will be just as relevant then as it is now, perhaps to a smaller audience, but I am confident that not all adornments will be automated and manufactured. There will still be an appreciation for the craft—the art—of unique, handmade jewelry.

Perspectives on Sales and Marketing in 50 Years

BY JEFF TARASCHI
By 2008, 40 percent of all televisions will offer the capability for consumers to purchase items they see on TV shopping networks without picking up the telephone. By simply pressing a button on the remote control, the viewer will be able to charge the purchase to their credit card. Imagine how this process will evolve over the next 50 years…

You are watching “Desperate Housewives” and the turquoise earrings Eva Longoria is wearing come up for sale. While you are viewing the program, you simply point and shoot your remote control to buy the earrings. Product placement will have a whole new meaning in 2056.

In addition to television sales, Internet sales will skyrocket. The Internet will evolve beyond its current boundaries as rich media supported by broadband delivers TV-style high-definition communication into the home, office, or mobile device. This new dynamic will simplify the process by which brands not linked to traditional brick-and-mortar retail establish viability with multimedia consumers.

In the jewelry industry, there will be a surge in personalized shopping and lifestyle marketing. For example, the 40- to 50-year-old upper-income female self-purchaser will have Web sites dedicated to her interests and shopping needs. These sites will have targeted information on fashion trends, colors, styles of the season, popular gems and metals, and must-have jewelry items. Video demonstrations will bring the Internet shopping experience to life.

The way to make this new form of marketing financially viable will be to find a loyal group of customers and maximize sales with them. Marketers will need to make consumers comfortable to buy without the requirement of touching the product; their faith in the brand will be critical.

There is no doubt that Internet capability will become an essential element for all businesses. Retailers and manufacturers who do not find a way to participate will be negatively impacted or perhaps eliminated.

Perspectives on Automation in 50 Years

BY AJIT MENON
If high-volume U.S. jewelry manufacturers wish to keep up with overseas competition over the next 50 years, they should seriously consider making automation a part of their manufacturing processes. Mass producers in the United States have been struggling for years to keep up with overseas companies that pay their workers a fraction of the wages that are standard in America. The only way to create a uniform playing field for jewelry manufacturing is to take labor out of the equation—and the only way to do that is through automation.

I believe that the year 2056 will see widespread automation in the most labor-intensive part of high volume jewelry manufacturing—finishing. Currently, there is a robot available (R-100 from Superior Robotics Inc.,www.superiorrobotics.com) that can be programmed to mimic the actual hand movements involved in the manual processes of grinding and finishing. Priced around $125,000, it functions in an enclosed cabinet that measures approximately 3 feet wide by 6 feet high by 3 feet deep, and is suitable for use on a variety of ring styles.

In 50 years, advances in technology should shrink the size and cost of this robot, and enhance its capabilities. A tabletop unit that can be programmed to perform any handwork needed on a variety of complex jewelry pieces is the robot of the future.

Perspectives on Benchwork in 50 Years

BY BLAINE LEWIS
One of the most difficult challenges in bench work is training your eyes and hands to work on a micro scale. Most jewelry pieces are so small that it is almost impossible to see every detail. Students new to the craft struggle with this every day. But with advances in viewing technology, their struggles could be a thing of the past in 50 years.

Consider the viewing lenses available now for those who suffer from macular degeneration (an eye disease caused by the deterioration of the part of the retina that is responsible for focusing central vision), who can see something in focus only if it is a few inches in front of their eyes. If you are standing five feet away from someone with this chronic eye disease, they see only a blurry shape; they can't even tell who you are. There are glasses available now that feature LCD technology. Lenses in the glasses project the image they see onto a tiny LCD screen that is right in front of the person's eyes, enabling them to see clearly.

Take that same concept and apply it to the bench worker. Imagine being able to put on a pair of jewelry goggles that will enable you to see the piece you are working on in incredible detail. The goggles will have high power zoomable lenses that are capable of high resolution and magnification. And the best part about it is that they will feature voice-controlled lenses that will move and zoom anywhere you command them to—without ever having to take your hands off the workpiece. They will increase your efficiency, reduce eyestrain, and, most important, improve quality. The glasses will enable you to obtain such high standards of quality under high power magnification that to the customer's eye, the piece will be flawless.

BY GREGG TODD
One of the most significant developments in the jewelry industry in 2056 will be the regeneration laser. Using state-of-the-art ion laser technology, this machine reconstitutes atomized elemental materials suspended in magnetospheric plasma, rebuilding worn or missing surfaces. A boon to moderate- and large-scale jewelry repair and service centers, the laser can polish and repair nearly every jewelry component.

Unlike the old-fashioned depletive polishing techniques, which remove material from the surface, the regeneration laser replaces the surface material to produce an atomic level polish of 375 angstroms. A pattern-replication model will be able to scan existing patterns and replace missing structure in a fraction of the time it would take with traditional techniques. This will be a tremendous boost to those who perform chain repair.

Of course, the impact on the gem industry will be no less revolutionary. Since the regeneration laser works throughout the full atomic spectrum, it can correct defects in nearly all gem species, including diamond, quickly and easily. Chips, fractures, inclusions, and even wear-damage (abrasions) can be corrected without having to go through the laborious process of re-cutting the gemstone. Even more notable is the fact that this can all be done without removing the stone from the mounting. And best of all, the prongs holding the stone in place can be regenerated at the same time.

BY CHARLES LEWTON-BRAIN
In the year 2056, all the hand skill techniques used today will be present and valued. Traditional jewelry making technologies—lost-wax casting, for example—will still be in use. However, there will be some amazing new developments, as well.

There will be a holographic 3-D digital construction system in which the user wears a virtual-reality visor and constructs a model in mid-air. He or she can pluck component parts and tools from libraries that float in the air around the construction area. These libraries and digital tools are arranged around the object in space for easiest access and speed of building, much as a tangible bench is organized today. The resulting object can then be printed on a rapid prototype machine, which will be ubiquitous in 2056.The machines will build models with materials that burn out easily during the casting process, as well as directly in metal.

But the power of virtual reality doesn't stop in the shop. The jewelry consumer will have the option to don virtual reality glasses and see a jewelry design on their finger or around their neck before having it made. They will look into a "mirror" that virtually applies the jewelry, or CAD rendering, on their skin as they view. This is the future of retail jewelry sales and CAD working in tandem.

Aside from the ways it will be made and sold, jewelry itself will be more than a luxury item. Bracelets and necklaces will serve as interfaces for medical monitoring and treatment, as well as computer interfaces.

Some additional predictions for the tools you'll see in 50 years include:

• Reciprocating gravers with no cords, wires, bulky handles, or
air supplies will be wirelessly powered and provide unbeatable control. Similar tools will be available for hammer-setting functions.

• A pen-like tool that uses focused vibration will flow metal where it touches a surface, tightening prongs, sealing pits, and aiding setting.

• Polishing will be done by intelligent media; miniaturized abrasive-wielding nanobots will crawl over the piece and finish its surface details.

• Intelligent job envelopes will automatically input all the jeweler's notes into the corresponding work file.

• A desktop identification system, which functions much like a scanning electron microscope, will analyze the atomic makeup of a piece of jewelry,
revealing the karatage and naming the precise alloy—a necessity in a world
with dozens of complex commercial jewelry alloys. This tool will be able to identify gemstones, as well.